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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO HAS ENOUGH SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 12 HOURS
OR SO.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND BEST ESTIMATE IS 330/08.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TRACKS BETWEEN NORTH NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE
AND CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST
THEREAFTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 109.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 109.3W    40 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N 108.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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