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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST SUN OCT 25 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST WHICH SHOWS VERY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE STORM.  THE LBAR AND BAM DEEP MODELS
CONINUE TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH EAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS.

A CDO FEATURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE STORM.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 17.2N 114.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 114.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.6N 115.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.2N 115.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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