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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998
 
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED OR ELSE
IT IS  HIDDEN UNDER THE CDO FEATURE WHICH IS ON THE WEAKENING STAGE
OF A BURSTING PATTERN.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/05.  THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE
12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWING A 500 MB LOW CUTTING OFF OVER CALIFORNIA.
MOST MODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS EXCEPT THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM WHICH ACCELERATE THE STORM
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMLAR
TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
EVEN THOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS...THE BURSTING CDO
PATTERN INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER
WHICH WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE ENCOUNTERED...RESULTING IN
SOME WEAKENING.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 15.3N 112.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.6N 112.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.3N 113.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 113.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N 113.3W    45 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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