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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT
WIND ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 60 KNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IS INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY.
 
LESTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE TRACK
MODELS.  HOWEVER...LATEST GDFL RUN SUGGESTS THAT LESTER WOULD TURN
TO THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH. WE
PREFER NOT TO MAKE A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS
TIME. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 15.3N 109.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 110.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 111.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 112.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 113.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 114.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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