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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 22 1998
 
LESTER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING
DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS DUE TO UPWELLING.  T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING
QUITE FAST BUT WIND ESTIMATES ARE STILL 80 TO 85 KNOTS. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS SUGGESTED BY SHIFOR.
 
LESTER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY AND A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK
SHOULD BEGIN WHEN A HIGH DEVELOPS THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 16.8N 109.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.8N 109.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 110.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 114.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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