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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 21 1998
 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOW SEEN AT CIRRUS LEVEL JUST UPSTREAM FROM
LESTER. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS
CIRCULAR...BUT AN EYE HAS REAPPEARED ON IR IMAGES AT 1400Z.   WHILE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 AT 1200Z...CI NUMBERS ARE
STILL 5.0...SO 90 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.
 
THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED...TO ABOUT 6 KT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS DECELERATION COULD BE EVIDENCE OF LESTER NEARING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NE.  SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT
COULD BE EXPERIENCED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE
DEVELOPS NEARER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THAT FEATURE WOULD FORCE A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AGAIN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
SHARP BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST BY 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS...BUT SHOWS A SMOOTHER TRACK THAN PROVIDED BY
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 16.6N 108.3W    90 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 110.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.3N 110.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 18.8N 111.9W    80 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 114.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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