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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND T-NUMBERS REMAIN
AROUND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
90 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS INDICATED BY SHIFOR.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DIVERGENT...WITH
TRACKS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTH.   AS INDICATED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FUTURE TRACK OF LESTER IS CONTROLLED
INITIALLY...BY THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER-LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THEN BY A NARROW RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  LESTER COULD BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL OR IT COULD
TURN BACK TO THE WEST WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...AS INDICATED BY
NOGAPS.  WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 16.0N 107.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 110.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N 111.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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