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HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BUT MOVING IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
DIRECTION NEAR 7 KNOTS...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION LESSENS THE
THREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION
FOR 500 MB SHOWS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS SUPPORTS A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
GENERALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION
MODELS.  ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LESTER
COULD MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS.  

THE RING OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEEN ERODING ON RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY JUST A FLUCTUATION.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE CONTINUES NEAR 85 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER.  ANOTHER AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF
LESTER WILL GIVE MORE DEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION.  A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE.  

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 14.6N  97.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 14.7N  98.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 15.5N 101.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 103.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W    95 KTS
 
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