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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 150/04.  THE GFDL...UKMET..AVIATION
AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR
72 HOURS.  THE LBAR SHOWS A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE DEEP AND
MEDIUM BAMS SHOW A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SLOW MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOVING THE
DEPRESSION SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD SIMILAR TO MANY OF THE
MODELS.
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION DISAPPEARED FOR A WHILE BUT IS COMING BACK TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ON THE PAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS...BUT 72 HOURS OF
POSITIONS ARE GIVEN IN THE FORECAST IN CASE IT DOES NOT DISSIPATE.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 11.7N 120.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.4N 120.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.4N 119.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.6N 118.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/1800Z 12.0N 117.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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