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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 140/04.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
DRIFTING IN A MORE OR LESS CYCLONIC LOOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A
STAGNANT STEERING CURRENT WHICH COVERS A LARGE AREA.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC LOOP TOWARD THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVIATION
MODEL AND NOGAPS BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND UKMET WHICH TAKE
THE DEPRESSION FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
 
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND MORE APPEARS TO BE GROWING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AVERAGE OF THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND KGWC AND A 2.0
FROM SAB GIVES A WIND SPEED NEAR 25 KNOTS...BUT IT WILL BE KEPT AT
30 KNOTS FOR 12 MORE HOURS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 12.1N 120.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 11.8N 120.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.8N 119.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 11.9N 118.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 12.2N 118.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/1200Z 13.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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