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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REAPPEARED INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE LAST
6 HOURS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST...THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST ADVISORY.

SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST SUGGEST THAT KAY HAS BEEN DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 140/04 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER 
AT VARYING SPEEDS.  THE GFDL...AVN AND UKMET CONTINUE THE IDEA OF
THE DEPRESSION LOOPING TOWARD THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PARTIALLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KAY ON A SLOW SOUTHEAST THEN EAST
COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY.  IF IT WEAKENS IT MAY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 12.9N 121.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 12.6N 120.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.4N 120.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 12.2N 119.6W    30 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 12.2N 119.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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