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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998
 
WHILE RATHER LIMITED OVERALL...THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION IN KAY
THAN AT ANY TIME DURING THE PAST 30 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL AGAIN BE ESTIMATED AT 30 KT AND THIS FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW A
STEADY DECLINE TOWARD DISSIPATION AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
 
KAY IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF WEST.  THE 06Z AVN SHOWS
LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WHILE THE 00Z NOGAPS CONTINUES
THE SW TO W MOTION.  OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AROUND THE
COMPASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL DRIFT TOWARD THE
WSW.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 13.6N 121.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.4N 121.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N 122.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.3N 122.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 13.2N 123.1W    30 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 13.2N 123.1W    30 KTS
 
 
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