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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECURRING NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-
KNOT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION IN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME.

MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY SIMILAR TRACK.  AS
NOTED EARLIER...OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOW THE
SYSTEM LOOPING TOWARD THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR TWO. 
THIS IS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING NEAR
THE U.S. WEST COAST.  HOWEVER IT IS PRESUMED THAT KAY WILL BE SO
WEAK THAT IT WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE NEAR-SURFACE NORTHEAST
TRADEWIND FLOW.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 13.6N 121.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.0N 122.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 122.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 12.0N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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