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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 14 1998
 
KAY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAVING ALL BUT DISAPPEARED.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE-UP IN
A NARROW BAND OF SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER IT IS INSUFFICIENT 
FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATION PURPOSES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS AND KAY IS DOWNGRADED TO DEPRESSION STATUS.
THE FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS.   

THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 205/06 KNOTS. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST
...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  THE AVN AND
GFDL HAVE NOW JOINED THE UKMET IN LOOPING THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 14.1N 121.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 121.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.9N 122.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 12.7N 123.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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