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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 14 1998

IT IS DIFFICULT TO KEEP KAY AS A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS
NO LONGER OBSERVED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB HAVE BEEN
DECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
KAY RESTRENGTHENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IT WITH 60 KNOTS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

KAY IS WITHIN A NON-DESCRIPTIVE FLOW PATTERN AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS. CONSEQUENTLY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING EVERY POSSIBLE TRACK. 
KAY IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 15.7N 120.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.6N 120.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 121.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 121.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 15.5N 123.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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