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HURRICANE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998
 
KAY IS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CDO-TYPE VISIBLE CLOUD
PATTERN.  THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE WHICH WAS SEEN MOST OF THE DAY 
IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 
SAB AND KGWC REMAIN 4.0 WHILE TAFB IS UP TO 3.5.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 65 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS REASONABLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...PER CIMSS ANALYSES. 
THE ONLY POSSIBLE DETRIMENT TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS THE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST
MAINTAINS KAY AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC ALL SUGGEST THAT KAY IS
MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY HEADING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 270/03 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THE 18Z OUTPUT WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A W TO WNW TRACK...
SOME INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE AVNI AND UKMET SUGGEST A SW TO S COURSE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
36 HOURS WITH A MORE WSW HEADING THEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
P9UK AND THE 18Z GFDL.  THIS REPRESENTS A MODEST LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 16.0N 119.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 119.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.9N 120.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N 121.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N 121.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.5N 122.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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