ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998 AN EYE HAS PERSISTED ON MOST OF THE SATELLITE PICTURES FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND...WITH A T-NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM SAB...KAY IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. THE HEADING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE LEFT. INITIAL MOTION IS 290/3 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT IS IN STORE...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A W TO WNW HEADING. A TURN TOWARD THE S OR SW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE REMAINDER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS PREDICTION. WHILE THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES IMPLY SOME LEVELLING OFF AT THIS POINT...NHC AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.1N 118.9W 65 KTS 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 119.4W 70 KTS 24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.3N 119.9W 75 KTS 36HR VT 15/0600Z 16.4N 120.4W 75 KTS 48HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 120.9W 65 KTS 72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W 55 KTS NNNN