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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998
 
SATELLITE PICTURES HAVE INTERMITTENTLY REVEALED A SMALL WARM SPOT
...PERHAPS AN EYE.  GIVEN THAT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES
...UP OR DOWN...SEEM TO OCCUR MOST OFTEN WITH SMALL SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ONE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD HAVE
JUMPED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...DVORAK TECHNIQUE
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC...WHEN THE WARM SPOT WAS NOT DISTINCT...
WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER...45 TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM KAY.
 
THE TRACK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT...NOW 300
DEGREES AT 3 KT.  KAY IS LOCATED TO THE SW OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
AND TO THE SE OF A TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE 06Z AVN
OUTPUT SHOWS THE TROUGH BYPASSING KAY...WITH MOST ASSOCIATED TRACK
MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATING THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WNW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE AVN ITSELF...THE UKMET...AND GFDL SHOW A
SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING.
 
A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS
SCHEME.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 16.1N 118.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 119.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.4N 119.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.6N 120.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W    65 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 122.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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