ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 310/04 BASED ON PAST 24 HOURS OF MOTION.  THE AVIATION
MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE LARGE SCALE STEERING CURRENTS FROM A RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LBAR AND THE BAM MODELS.  HOWEVER
THE GFDL MODEL DRIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 30 HOURS AND THEN
DISSIPATES IT.  THE UKMET DRIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 3 DAYS
AND THE AVATION MODEL SHOWS LITTLE MOTION FOR 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A LITTLE
SLOWER...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE.

SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 15.9N 118.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.2N 118.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.6N 119.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 120.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.3N 120.9W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 122.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN