ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 12 1998 WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND BEGAN LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE 10TH BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ ON THE 11TH. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS HAD A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE LAST 18-24 HOURS THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MEAGER. HOWEVER...THE AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE LAST 6-9 HOURS TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. FURTHERMORE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH KGWC AND SAB ARE NOW 2.0. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TD THIRTEEN-E AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES...CIMSS...AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST..IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE PREDICTION SCHEME..SHIPS..WITH THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH LBAR AND BAMD. THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.2N 118.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.6N 118.6W 35 KTS 24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.2N 119.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.9N 120.6W 40 KTS 48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W 40 KTS 72HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 123.0W 40 KTS NNNN