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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998
 
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR
20.0 109.5.  THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
VIOLATES THE 06Z C6LF9 SHIP REPORT AT 21.4N 109.6W WITH A WIND OF
230/27.  IF THAT SHIP IS CORRECT...THEN THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  REALIZING THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE
CENTER OF A WEAK SYSTEM...THE INITIAL POSITION IS PUT AT 20.O 109.5
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS STATIONARY.
 
THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE A BIT WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION......THE LBAR SHOING A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION...THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWING A MOSTLY SOUTHWARD MOTION...AND
THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOTION.  THE FORECAST
RESOLVES THIS DIVERGENCE BY HOLDING THE DEPRESSION STATIONARY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THERE IS LITTLE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND HOLDS THE WIND SPEED AT 30 KNOTS UNTIL
36 HOURS WHEN THE WIND IS INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 20.0N 109.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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