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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 01 1998
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE CENTER IS INVOLVED WITH A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
HAS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 2.0...30 KNOTS. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...BRINGING THE 
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY 12 HOURS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/5 KNOTS.  THE
DEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK BY 72 
HOURS.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WILL LIKELY BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 20.6N 109.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.2N 110.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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