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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AGAIN.  REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AS LONG AS THE SHEAR PERSISTS.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25
KNOTS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
 
JAVIER HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NAVY NOGAPS AND
UKMET MODELS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 20.5N 109.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     13/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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