ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 10 1998 SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 OR LOWER... IMPLYING WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...PERHAPS A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND PREVENT ANY POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR WERE TO DECREASE THE SYSTEM COULD MAKE A COME BACK. THERE IS LITTLE FLOW TO STEER JAVIER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SLIGHT WESTWARD STEERING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WOULD MOVE JAVIER IN THAT DIRECTION. THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY DIVERGENT...THE GFDL MOVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO 48 HOURS AND THAN A TURN TO THE EAST AT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL TRACK BUT AT A SLOWER SPEED. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 20.5N 110.2W 25 KTS 12HR VT 11/0600Z 20.2N 109.9W 25 KTS 24HR VT 11/1800Z 19.8N 109.5W 25 KTS 36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.4N 109.0W 25 KTS 48HR VT 12/1800Z 18.9N 108.5W 25 KTS 72HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 107.7W 25 KTS NNNN