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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SINGLE SPOT OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE NOW 1.5 OR
LOWER...IMPLYING WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.
 
THERE IS LITTLE FLOW TO STEER JAVIER. THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS LIFT
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST A LITTLE TO THE
NE AND BUILD SOMEWHAT THE RIDGE BETWEEN THAT LOW AND THE DEPRESSION.
THAT INTRODUCES A SLIGHT WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS WHICH COULD MOVE JAVIER IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 20.9N 110.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 20.9N 110.6W    25 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.9N 110.6W    25 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 20.9N 111.2W    20 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.9N 112.0W    20 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N 113.6W    20 KTS
 
 
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