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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SINGLE SPOT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS CONTINUE TO FALL AND ARE
NOW 1.5 OR LOWER...IMPLYING WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  TOP WINDS SPEEDS
DETECTED BY THE ERS-2 ARE ALSO NEAR 25 KT.  THE DEPRESSION HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
 
THERE IS LITTLE FLOW TO STEER JAVIER. THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS LIFT
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST A LITTLE TO THE
NE AND BUILD SOMEWHAT THE RIDGE BETWEEN THAT LOW AND THE DEPRESSION.
THAT INTRODUCES A SLIGHT WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
CURRENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD MOVE JAVIER IN THAT
DIRECTION IF...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT..IT IS A FAIRLY DEEP
SYSTEM THEN.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 20.9N 110.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 20.9N 110.8W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/0600Z 21.0N 112.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     13/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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