ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 09 1998
 
ALTHOUGH JAVIER REMAINS OVER WARM WATER...EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS
IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE POSSIBILITY OF
REGENERATION IS REMOTE AS LONG AS THE SHEAR REMAINS AS STRONG AS IT
IS AT PRESENT.  OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JAVIER TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  STEERING
CURRENTS HAVE COLLAPSED AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION WHILE
MOST OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST AT VARYING SPEEDS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 111.2W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 22.5N 111.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN