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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 09 1998
 
ASIDE FROM SOME...DIMINISHING...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...JAVIER IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE
IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...CURRENTLY JAVIER IS ON A
WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING
IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
THE ONLY PERCEIVED MOVEMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...CLOSEST TO THE LIMITED
AREA BAROTROPIC MODEL LBAR...BUT NORTHEAST OF MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...SHOWS A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
GRADUAL CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS
CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA...BUT SINCE THE CYCLONE IS A WEAKENING
DEPRESSION...WATCHES OR WARNINGS SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.  HOWEVER
SMALL CRAFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN
IN PORT.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 21.1N 111.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N 111.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W    20 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W    20 KTS
 
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