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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 09 1998
 
THE CENTER OF JAVIER REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT THIS TIME.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT INCREASE IN AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION JAVIER MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 18 TO 24
HOURS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH OFF
THE U.S. WEST COAST DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 20N BY 24-36 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN ITS WEAKEN STATE ITS UNLIKELY
TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE.  WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE MOTION. SO...UNTIL SOME
DETECTABLE MOTION OCCURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD STATIONARY...PER
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS
 
 
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