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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 09 1998
 
JAVIER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  MEANWHILE...ITS
CENTERED HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION ONLY EVIDENT
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE 00Z AVN ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A TROUGH DEVELOPING UNUSUALLY FAR TO
THE SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG THE WEST COAST.  INTERESTINGLY
...IT SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE MODEL/S FORECAST TRACK FOR
THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH IT KEEPS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS ALSO SHOW LITTLE MOTION...AS DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

JAVIER HAS BEEN WEAKENING WHILE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECASTS
SUGGESTED STRENGTHENING WAS POSSIBLE.  THIS FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FROM ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.
  
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS
72HR VT     12/0600Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS
 
 
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