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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 1998
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT AS FAR AS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS
CONCERNED...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL WHICH SHOWS
THE STORM CUT OFF AND NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO
SHOWS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DIGGING SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE
STORM AND THIS COULD GET THE STORM MOVING DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS WELL WEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS
IS THE BASIS FOR DECREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 35 KNOTS.  THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY...EVEN THOUGH THE
EXPOSED CENTER SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR.  THE FORECAST IS FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HOURS.

THE STORM IS RATHER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT THE
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
INDICATES THAT WARNINGS ARE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 20.8N 111.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N 111.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.2N 112.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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