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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 1998
CORRECTION TO ADVISORY NUMBER...6 INSTEAD OF 7
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF JAVIER IS EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF JAVIER IS NOW UNDER
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45
KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT.  THE MODEST STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED.
 
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IMPLY THAT JAVIER/S FORWARD
SPEED HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/03 KNOTS.  THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND
THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...NEAR 20N...BY 48 HOURS
TO PULL JAVIER NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST
..THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST HEADING BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
ACCELERATION.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.
 
THERE IS ONE CAVEAT TO THIS TRACK FORECAST...IF JAVIER STRENGTHENS
MORE THAN FORECAST IT COULD RECURVE SOONER.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 20.7N 117.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N 112.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.3N 112.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 21.7N 113.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.2N 113.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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