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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 07 1998
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND
TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5.  IN ADDITION...SOCCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A WIND OF
270/28 KTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1000.6 MB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS...AND TD ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM JAVIER.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS INITIATED
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 24 DEG C SST/S.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 KNOTS.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL DECELERATION.  THIS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECAST PERIODS AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE U.S. WEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS COULD
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE...POSSIBLY EVEN RECURVING THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.  
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 20.8N 112.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 114.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.4N 115.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.4N 116.9W    55 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 26.4N 118.8W    45 KTS
 
 
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