ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 07 1998 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND ATTEMPTING TO FORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING UPPER- LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...APPROXIMATELY 100 MB... RESULTING IN RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WITHIN 12 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS A WEAKENING TREND IS INITIATED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 24 DEG C SST/S. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KNOTS. AS WAS THE CASE AT 12Z THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE A RATHER EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTH OF 35N ALONG 140W...TO THE U.S. WEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE...POSSIBLY EVEN RECURVING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.4N 110.8W 30 KTS 12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.1N 111.9W 40 KTS 24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.1N 113.5W 50 KTS 36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.1N 114.9W 55 KTS 48HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W 55 KTS 72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 118.0W 45 KTS NNNN