ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 1998
 
RADAR DATA FROM THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE/S DOPPLER RADAR IN CABO
SAN LUCAS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIS IS ABOUT
35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. MOREOVER...A SHIP OBSERVATION
WAS RECEIVED LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED RADAR LOCATION
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AT BEAUFORT FORCE 10...48-55
KNOTS...AND A 993 MB PRESSURE.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE CENTER OF
ISIS IS BEING RE-LOCATED NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH LAND. 

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO IS EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
ON THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE SANTA ROSALIA TO PUNTA
ABREAJOS....AND MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST FROM ELDORADO TO GUAYMAS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KNOTS.  ISIS SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  MOST
OF THE 00Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD HEADING
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO....AND IS IN CLOSEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS P91E AND P9UK.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 22.4N 109.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 23.7N 109.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 25.3N 109.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 26.9N 110.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N 111.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 31.0N 114.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN