ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 1998
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HOWARD HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL PERSISTENT PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCE TO 35
KNOTS...MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN KEEPING WITH THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  AN ERS2 WIND PASS WAS OBTAINED OVER HOWARD
SHOWING ONLY A SMALL BAND OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WINDS MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN QUADRANTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HOWARD MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08.  UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH
INFRARED IMAGERY BUT IT APPEARS THAT HOWARD IS NOW ON A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST.
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 20.2N 130.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N 131.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 20.2N 133.7W    25 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N 135.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN