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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 1998

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 55 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS HOWARD MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD...AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME.  CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW BAM AND CLIPER.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 20.5N 127.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 21.4N 128.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N 130.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 23.2N 133.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 23.7N 135.3W    30 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 24.0N 141.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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