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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 27 1998

ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  AVERAGING THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATION INTENSITIES FROM TPC AND NESDIS YIELD A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS...SO HOWARD IS DOWNGRADED TO A STORM ON THIS
ADVISORY.  HOWARD IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND SATELLITE-DERIVED ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AS IN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES.

THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN FORECASTS A LOW- TO MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD.  ALSO
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...IT SHOULD TEND TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE.  HOWARD/S CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...305/10...IS EXPECTED TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE
WEST WITH TIME.  THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 19.9N 127.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.8N 128.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.8N 130.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N 132.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 23.0N 134.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 23.5N 139.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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