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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 26 1998
 
HOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RAPIDLY DECREASING RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH RECENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 4.5...102 KNOTS TO 77
KNOTS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD TO 85 KNOTS FOR THIS PACKAGE
BUT EXPECT IT TO DECREASE LATER TODAY AS HOWARD HAS CROSSED THE 26
SST ISOTHERM AND STRATOCU IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/08 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MORE
WESTERLY THEN PREVIOUSLY BECAUSE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE
MRF APPEARS CONFUSED BY A PHANTOM VORTEX TO ITS WEST.  THE MRF SHOWS
HOWARD ROTATING AROUND THE NON-EXISTANT SYSTEM.  
 
GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 17.5N 124.3W    85 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.7N 125.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.1N 127.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.6N 129.6W    60 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.2N 136.3W    40 KTS
 
 
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