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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 26 1998
 
HOWARD CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECLINE.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL
HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE...ABOUT 30 NM IN DIAMETER...THE SURROUNDING
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 5.5...102 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 100 KNOTS.  THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AS HOWARD APPROACHES COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE DYNAMIC-
BASED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  A 24-HOUR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT HOWARD HAS BEEN ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE...NOTWITHSTANDING A WOBBLE OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING
...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 17.5N 122.5W   100 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 123.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.8N 126.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 127.9W    70 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.2N 130.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.4N 134.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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