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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 1998
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH HOWARD
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT NO BANDING FEATURES. 
LOW LEVEL STRAT0-CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED INTO HOWARD AND
THIS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALL DECREASED TO 5.5.. SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 105 KTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. 
 
HOWARD HAS SLOWED DOWN SO THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/08.  THE
MODEL ENSEMBLE GENERALLY TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ALSO AT A SLOWER PACE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 17.7N 121.6W   105 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 123.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 124.7W    95 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.4N 126.3W    85 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.6N 131.4W    65 KTS
 
 
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