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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 1998
 
HOWARD IS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH A VERY SYMMETRIC SATELLITE
PRESENTATION.  THE EYE REMAINS RATHER LARGE...ABOUT 30 NMI IN
DIAMETER...WITH A 60 NMI WIDE SURROUNDING RING OF -70 TO -75C
CLOUD TOPS.  THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS NOW 6.5
WHILE SUBJECTIVE-BASED ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 6.5 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. 
ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF HOWARD IS INCREASED TO 
125 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING
...WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING 25 DEG C WATERS BY 36 HOURS.
 
HOWARD IS MOVING ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED TRACK WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/11 KNOTS.  ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN
RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 17.3N 118.8W   125 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W   115 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 122.6W   105 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.2N 124.8W    95 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 127.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 132.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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