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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 24 1998
 
THE EYE HAS OPENED UP AND IS QUITE LARGE NOW WITH A DOUBLE STRUCTURE
APPARENT...PERHAPS WITH A MESOCYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5.  THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE
IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.
 
HOWARD REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING AT 290/10 KT.  WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE N TO NE...THE CURRENT TRACK
GUIDANCE AND NHC FORECAST LOOK MUCH LIKE THEY DID 6 HOURS AGO.  A
WNW TO W TRACK IS EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW WEAKENING
AS COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 16.6N 116.3W   105 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.1N 117.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.8N 119.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W    80 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.1N 123.6W    70 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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