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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 24 1998
 
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AGAIN ESTIMATED AT 110 KT...AS IMPLIED BY THE
ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWARD STILL HAS A RATHER LARGE COLD
CLOUD CANOPY BUT THE EYE IS NOT DISTINCT.  THE TRACK REMAINS TOWARD
ABOUT 285/11 KT ON AVERAGE...WITH SOME WOBBLING NOTED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS.
 
THE 06Z AVN RETAINS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH TO NE.  THIS
PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WNW TO WEST
TRACK...WHICH THE NHC FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 16.4N 115.3W   110 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 117.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.9N 119.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W    85 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W    75 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N 128.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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