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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE AROUND 6.0 AND 6.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 125 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS HOWARD APPROACHES
COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 209/12.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED SINCE THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 15.1N 111.2W   125 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 113.0W   125 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W   125 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W   120 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W   110 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 124.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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