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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION
THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THIS TIME GFDL AND NOGAPS MAKE A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WHILE ALL THE BAMS...UKMET...AND
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODELS TO 36 HOURS AND MAINTAINS THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION OUT TO 72 HOURS.
 
THE EYE CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED AND HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN
SIZE...NOW APPROXIMATELY 11 NM IN DIAMETER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
6.0...6.0...6.5PLUS FROM GLOBAL...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. 
BASED UPON THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE TREND DURING THE PAST
24-HOURS IT APPEARS THAT HOWARD IS ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CURVE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 14.7N 108.6W   130 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 110.4W   140 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.4N 112.8W   130 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W   130 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.2N 117.2W   120 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W   110 KTS
 
 
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