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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A
CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE AVIATION
MODEL 00Z RUN SHOWS SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED 
AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLIGHT DECELERATION AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.

WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS
AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. 
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS COULD
START A WEAKENING TREND.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 13.8N 106.2W    95 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.7N 107.6W   105 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N 109.7W   110 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.1N 111.9W   110 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 113.7W   100 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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