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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS...INCLUDING THE
GFDL....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE
RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT HOWARD HAS INCREASED TO MINIMAL
HURRICANE STRENGTH AND A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH SOME LEVELING OFF IS EXPECTED.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 11.9N 102.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.7N 103.8W    75 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.6N 105.3W    85 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.8N 107.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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