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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS MOTI0N CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS...EXCEPT THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE BEHAVIOR OF THE GFDL MAY BE
DUE TO A VORTEX IN THE AVIATION MODEL NEAR 13N 122W...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AS A COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 11.3N 102.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 12.2N 105.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 13.1N 107.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 108.7W    85 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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