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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
HOWARD HAS STRENGTHENED.  A CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
STRONG RAIN BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE APPARENT ON SATELLITE
PICTURES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5...INDICATING
55 KT WINDS.  THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD ABOUT 280/10 KT.
 
THE 00Z AVN MAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL E-W RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD
IMPLY A WNW MOTION AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.  THE RIDGE
DOES NOT SHOW UP PROMINENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...AND
THE GFDL SHOWS A NW OR NNW HEADING FOR MOST OF THE 3-DAY PERIOD.  IN
CONSIDERATION OF THAT FORECAST...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

HOWARD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 11.0N 101.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 11.4N 102.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 11.9N 104.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 12.5N 106.3W    75 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 13.5N 108.4W    80 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 111.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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